The volcano is now being asked to say when
the volcano is now being asked to say when: a jerk system on reunion’s piton de la fournaise caught 92 percent of eruptions over ten years by reading micro cracks in the ground, and indonesia’s brin models flag eruption signals up to 72 hours out with 85 percent accuracy.
the mountain now files its own schedule.
Context
Nature Communications published Jerk, a promising tool for early warning of volcanic eruptions on December 17, 2025. It says fully automated detection at Piton de la Fournaise gave real-time early warnings for 92 percent of 24 eruptions from 2014 to 2023, with 14 percent false alarms.
Separate work on Indonesian volcanoes uses a Random Forest on seismic data for Semeru, Lewotobi Laki-laki and Ruang, with lead times from 6 hours to 1 day.
The 92 percent success over ten years at Piton de la Fournaise matches the paper. The paper also reports a 14 percent false alarm rate, which the post leaves out.
'Micro cracks' as the mechanism and 'BRIN flags signals up to 72 hours out with 85 percent accuracy' were not seen in the pages read, so they are unsupported here, not refuted. The Indonesian abstract describes a Random Forest model with 6 to 24 hour lead times.
'The mountain now files its own schedule' is the author's opinion.
Related work
- Nature Communications: Jerk ↗The paper.
- PMC: Jerk ↗Open-access copy.
- EGU26-16967: Random Forest on Indonesian volcanoes ↗The Indonesian forecasting work.
Watch next
- Look for BRIN's own published results.
Sources
- Nature Communications, Dec 17, 2025nature.com
- PMC12749597pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- EGU26-16967, Mar 14, 2026meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 3 October 2026 at 17:17 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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