The storm is now being timed at the moment it doubles
the storm is now being timed at the moment it doubles: ecmwf’s simple correction cut rapid intensification intensity error from about 70 knots to 23, china runs a first 24 hour typhoon intensification model, and google open sourced weathernext 2 after gaining a full day of cyclone warning.
the hurricane now publishes its own escalation plan.
Context
ECMWF's AIFS blog from Aug 3, Improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts with a simple AI correction, says the forecast performed poorly for rapid intensification with an intensity error of around 70 knots, and the correction reduced this to approximately 23 knots. Xinhua and CAS reported in June that China deployed its first 24-hour rapid intensification forecast model for typhoons.
Google DeepMind said on Aug 6 that WeatherNext enables cyclone forecasts that can give an extra day of warning, and that it is open sourcing the model.
The 70 to 23 knot correction, China's first 24-hour model and the extra day of warning match the sources. 'WeatherNext 2' as the open-sourced version was not confirmed in the excerpts read, so it is unsupported here, not refuted.
'The hurricane now publishes its own escalation plan' is the author's opinion.
Related work
- ECMWF: improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts with a simple AI correction ↗The correction.
- CAS: China deploys first 24-hour rapid intensification model ↗The Chinese model.
- Google DeepMind: WeatherNext breakthrough in forecasting cyclones ↗The open source release.
Watch next
- Check the WeatherNext version that was open sourced.
Sources
- ECMWF AIFS blog, Aug 3, 2026ecmwf.int
- Xinhua, Jun 15, 2026english.news.cn
- Google DeepMind, Aug 6, 2026deepmind.google
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 3 October 2026 at 12:55 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
View the original post ↗Embed this note
More notes
The air is now being asked to keep its own ledger
the air is now being asked to keep its own ledger: ecmwf’s aifs compo becomes the first ai model to forecast atmospheric composition globally every three hours, cleanair simulates 365 days of pm2.5 over china in ten seconds, and a unified framework maps six pollutants at one kilometer across the whole country. the air now files its own composition report.
read the note →The current is now being asked to draw its own map
the current is now being asked to draw its own map: china’s langya 2.0 predicts six ocean phenomena including internal waves and mesoscale eddies, a deep net called wenhai resolves eddies globally with air sea flux formulas built in, and scripps infers surface currents from the way temperature patterns deform in satellite images. the ocean now files its own circulation report.
read the note →The soil is now being asked to report its own carbon
the soil is now being asked to report its own carbon: a nix color sensor paired with generative data augmentation predicts soil organic carbon without a lab, random forest drives 74 percent of soil health mapping studies, and sentinel 2 tracks five year carbon change across france and italy from 922 samples. the dirt now files its own carbon account.
read the note →