The pacific is now being given a confirmed appointment
the pacific is now being given a confirmed appointment: wmo says el nino will almost certainly persist through february 2027, cpc puts a 69 percent chance on a historic event stronger than anything since 1950, and all 22 forecast models agree it strengthens through winter.
the ocean now files its own outlook.
Context
WMO says El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with extreme weather risks into 2027, and its August update gives near 100 percent likelihood that it persists. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Nino continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January-March 2027.
IAMElNino.com reports that CPC raised its outlook and attached a 69 percent chance to a historic event.
The WMO persistence outlook, the CPC strengthening discussion and the 69 percent historic chance match the sources, though the 69 percent figure was seen on a secondary site, not CPC's page. 'Through February 2027', 'stronger than anything since 1950' and 'all 22 models agree' were not seen in the excerpts read, so they are unsupported here, not refuted.
'The ocean now files its own outlook' is the author's opinion.
Related work
- WMO: El Nino set to become very strong ↗The WMO update.
- NOAA CPC: ENSO diagnostic discussion ↗The official discussion.
- IAMElNino: historic threshold ↗The 69 percent figure.
Watch next
- Check CPC's page for the 69 percent wording.
Sources
- WMO, Sep 3, 2026wmo.int
- WMO El Nino/La Nina update, Aug 26, 2026wmo.int
- NOAA Climate Prediction Centercpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 3 October 2026 at 13:04 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
View the original post ↗Embed this note
More notes
The air is now being asked to keep its own ledger
the air is now being asked to keep its own ledger: ecmwf’s aifs compo becomes the first ai model to forecast atmospheric composition globally every three hours, cleanair simulates 365 days of pm2.5 over china in ten seconds, and a unified framework maps six pollutants at one kilometer across the whole country. the air now files its own composition report.
read the note →The current is now being asked to draw its own map
the current is now being asked to draw its own map: china’s langya 2.0 predicts six ocean phenomena including internal waves and mesoscale eddies, a deep net called wenhai resolves eddies globally with air sea flux formulas built in, and scripps infers surface currents from the way temperature patterns deform in satellite images. the ocean now files its own circulation report.
read the note →The soil is now being asked to report its own carbon
the soil is now being asked to report its own carbon: a nix color sensor paired with generative data augmentation predicts soil organic carbon without a lab, random forest drives 74 percent of soil health mapping studies, and sentinel 2 tracks five year carbon change across france and italy from 922 samples. the dirt now files its own carbon account.
read the note →