The ice sheet is now being asked to disclose its triggers
the ice sheet is now being asked to disclose its triggers: new modeling puts antarctica’s runaway threshold near 240 parts per million of co2 while the atmosphere sits at about 425, thwaites glacier’s shelf is falling apart faster than expected, and machine learning now emulates the whole sheet’s response to climate inputs to 2100.
the continent now files its own tipping points.
Context
A May 2026 report describes a 3-million-year Antarctic ice sheet simulation that identified a rapid expansion threshold below 236 ppm of CO2. New Scientist reported on May 18 that the floating ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is detaching, and a 2024 Journal of Glaciology paper finds rift propagation, not basal melt, is driving the disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf.
A 2026 paper models the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with explainable machine learning.
The Thwaites ice shelf break-up and the machine learning ice sheet modeling match the sources. The post says a runaway threshold near 240 ppm; the report seen gives 236 ppm for rapid expansion in a Pliocene-based simulation, so the figure and its framing differ. The 'about 425 ppm' atmosphere level and the 'emulates the whole sheet to 2100' detail were not seen, so they are unsupported here, not refuted.
'The continent now files its own tipping points' is the author's opinion.
Related work
- Asiae: 3-million-year Antarctic simulation, 236 ppm threshold ↗The CO2 threshold study.
- New Scientist: Thwaites ice shelf about to break away ↗Thwaites shelf.
- Modelling future Antarctic ice sheet evolution with explainable ML ↗ML emulation.
Watch next
- Read the underlying paper for the threshold wording.
Sources
- Asiae, May 28, 2026asiae.co.kr
- New Scientist, May 18, 2026newscientist.com
- Journal of Glaciology, Wild et al. 2024ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 3 October 2026 at 13:46 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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