The export controls just cost nvidia the market they were built to protect. nvidia says its $50b…
the export controls just cost nvidia the market they were built to protect. nvidia says its $50b china business is effectively closed, took a multibillion write-off after the h20 ban ended hopper sales there, and h200’s return still earns under 1% of revenue.
the controls didn’t stop china’s stack — they just ended nvidia’s $50b share of it.
Context
Verified dates: CNBC (May 28, 2025) reports Nvidia saying export controls had effectively closed China to it, and TechCrunch the same day reports a $4.5 billion charge in the quarter for H20 chips, plus $2.5 billion of H20 revenue it could not ship. TechFlow (Aug 27, citing Bloomberg) says Nvidia sold a small volume of H200 chips to Chinese customers in the quarter ended Jul 26, accounting for under 1% of data center revenue and a $400 million inventory write-down.
Fortune (Jun 3, 2025) quotes Jensen Huang on a multibillion-dollar write-off of inventory that cannot be sold or repurposed.
The multibillion write-off, the effectively closed China market and the under 1% from H200 match these sources, but the first two are from May 2025, not recent, and the H200 figure is from Aug 2026. The $50 billion size of the China business was not seen in the sources read, so unsupported here, not refuted. and the post's 'the controls didn't stop China's stack' is the author's opinion.
Related work
- Fortune on the H20 write-down ↗Jun 3, 2025.
- TechCrunch ↗May 28, 2025.
- TechFlow ↗Aug 27, 2026.
Watch next
- Find Nvidia's filing or CEO remarks that put a dollar size on the China market.
Sources
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 1 October 2026 at 05:37 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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