The appraisal is becoming an output
the appraisal is becoming an output: ai valuation models now land within three percent of sale prices in liquid markets while traditional appraisals miss by more in a third of cases, and ai-priced properties sell forty percent faster. the same models blow past eight percent error on new york condos and rural listings.
the price is accurate everywhere except where it matters most.
Context
An ACR Journal study from Sep 2025 benchmarks Zillow's Zestimate against New York City assessments, asking how accurate automated valuation models are against jurisdiction-wide benchmarks. The Roebling team's valuation page says its model was backtested against historical Manhattan sales, using comparable sales in the building first.
A Vega Economics paper explains how AVM accuracy is measured with percentage sales error.
Automated valuations being tested for accuracy against sales and assessments, including in New York, matches the sources. Landing within three percent of sale prices in liquid markets, traditional appraisals missing by more in a third of cases, 40 percent faster sales of AI-priced properties, and above eight percent error on New York condos and rural listings were not seen in the sources read, so unsupported here, not refuted.
Related work
Watch next
- Find error rates by property type in an AVM benchmark.
Sources
- ACR Journal, Sep 21, 2025acr-journal.com
- The Roebling valuation pagetheroeblingteam.com
- Vega Economics, AVM metricsvegaeconomics.com
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 2 October 2026 at 15:25 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
View the original post ↗Embed this note
More notes
The air is now being asked to keep its own ledger
the air is now being asked to keep its own ledger: ecmwf’s aifs compo becomes the first ai model to forecast atmospheric composition globally every three hours, cleanair simulates 365 days of pm2.5 over china in ten seconds, and a unified framework maps six pollutants at one kilometer across the whole country. the air now files its own composition report.
read the note →The current is now being asked to draw its own map
the current is now being asked to draw its own map: china’s langya 2.0 predicts six ocean phenomena including internal waves and mesoscale eddies, a deep net called wenhai resolves eddies globally with air sea flux formulas built in, and scripps infers surface currents from the way temperature patterns deform in satellite images. the ocean now files its own circulation report.
read the note →The soil is now being asked to report its own carbon
the soil is now being asked to report its own carbon: a nix color sensor paired with generative data augmentation predicts soil organic carbon without a lab, random forest drives 74 percent of soil health mapping studies, and sentinel 2 tracks five year carbon change across france and italy from 922 samples. the dirt now files its own carbon account.
read the note →