Open models just started competing on slope instead of peak. google's gemma 4 line, refreshed sept…
open models just started competing on slope instead of peak. google's gemma 4 line, refreshed sept 16, is pitched on intelligence-per-parameter with 12b and 26b sizes plus edge variants, so the open-model race is now about output per watt and per dollar.
the ceiling stopped mattering, the efficiency curve became the spec.
Context
Verified source: Google DeepMind's Gemma 4 page pitches the line as built from Gemini 3 research to maximize intelligence-per-parameter, listing 12B, 26B and 31B sizes. Google's release notes date Gemma 4 to Mar 31, 2026 and the 12B Unified model to Apr 16, 2026, with E2B and E4B edge sizes.
The model overview lists small edge models, a 31B dense model and a 26B mixture-of-experts model.
The intelligence-per-parameter pitch and the 12B and 26B sizes match Google. The Sep 16 refresh date was not seen in the sources read, so unsupported here, not refuted. in the release notes read, which list Mar 31 and Apr 16, 2026. 'Output per watt' is the author's framing. 'The ceiling stopped mattering' is the author's opinion.
Related work
- Gemma 4 model card ↗Model card.
- Gemma releases ↗Mar 31 and Apr 16, 2026 entries.
- Gemma 4 overview ↗Sizes and architectures.
Watch next
- Check the Gemma release notes for anything dated Sep 16.
Sources
- Gemma 4, Google DeepMinddeepmind.google
- Gemma releases, Google AI for Developersai.google.dev
- Gemma 4 model overview, Google AI for Developersai.google.dev
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 1 October 2026 at 01:35 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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