Monthly book releases tripled between 2022 and late 2025 as llms diffused, and ai-containing titles…
monthly book releases tripled between 2022 and late 2025 as llms diffused, and ai-containing titles now top half of 2025 output while carrying worse ratings and less usage, per nber research — a flood that roughly doubled the number of modestly used books. hachette became the first major publisher to publicly cancel a contracted novel, shy girl, over suspected ai authorship.
the abundance isn’t the problem, the signal is.
Context
Verified source: NBER Working Paper 34777 by Imke Reimers and Joel Waldfogel (issued Jan 2026, revised Jul 2026) says monthly book releases tripled from 2022 to late 2025 as LLMs diffused, while average usage and quality measures worsened, and the surge raised the number of modestly used books.
The Guardian and BBC (Mar 20, 2026) report Hachette cancelled the US release of Shy Girl by Mia Ballard and withdrew the UK edition over suspected AI use.
The tripling, worse usage and ratings, and the increase in modestly used books match NBER. The 'AI-containing titles top half of 2025 output' wording was not seen in the sources read, so unsupported here, not refuted. for the revised working paper's exact framing. The Shy Girl cancellation matches the Guardian, BBC and TechCrunch (Mar 21, 2026); the sources read describe it as cancelled over suspected, not proven, AI use. 'The signal is the problem' is the author's.
Related work
- NBER working paper 34777 (PDF) ↗Revised Jul 2026.
- TechCrunch: publisher pulls horror novel Shy Girl ↗Mar 21, 2026.
- Guardian: Hachette pulls Shy Girl ↗Mar 20, 2026.
Watch next
- Check the revised NBER paper for the share of AI-containing titles.
Sources
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 1 October 2026 at 22:16 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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